Prowling the Pumps – Feb. 3, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

Back on the rise – up 1.6¢ per litre this week. Despite slight drops in five jurisdictions and no change in three others, hefty rises in Quebec and Prince Edward Island lifted the average price. However, the overall changes of the last three weeks are tame in comparison with those of the summer, so the Prowler is willing to say that, for the early part of the year, prices have been fairly stable.

The biggest increase this week, 5.5¢ per litre, was in Prince Edward Island. Quebec wasn’t far behind at 3.4¢ per litre. The biggest decrease, at 1.5¢ per litre, was in Saskatchewan.

In 11 cities, four fewer than last week, prices were between 70¢ and 80¢ per litre; in 39 cities, two more than last week, prices were between 80¢ and 90¢; and in nine cities, again two more than last week, it higher than 90¢. In only one city were prices higher than $1.00 per litre.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

For the early part of the year, the Prowler is seeing more variation in the members of the low-cost five (or six in case of a tie). Last year it was all Ontario and Alberta, but this year, New Brunswick is becoming more prominent, despite significantly higher taxes than the other two. This may have something to do with Canada’s largest refinery being in Saint John, although Saint John itself rarely cracks the cheap five.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Not much change in the pricey five with respect to members, just a bit of jockeying for position.

Excluding taxes, Yellowknife has the most expensive gasoline in the country, 13¢ per litre more expensive than the next priciest city, Montreal. However, taxes in Montreal are 12.5¢ per litre greater than in Yellowknife, so other than Yellowknife, taxes are the big reason for inclusion in the pricey five. Both Vancouver and Montreal have municipal carbon taxes, and Newfoundland and Labrador has high taxes period.

With the price of oil hovering around the $41.00 US per barrel mark, one (in this case one meaning the Prowler) would think that gasoline prices would have gone down from last week when average oil prices were higher. Prices of other petroleum products either remained steady or dropped slightly, so why did gasoline prices rise? The prowler’s guess is demand, although, if that were the case, one would think heating oil prices, especially in the Maritimes would be going through the roof. In any case, the increase was only 1.6¢ per litre and that really doesn’t warrant much concern. Or does it?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.912	0.904	-0.008
AB	0.798	0.798	0.000
SK	0.897	0.882	-0.015
MB	0.842	0.842	0.000
ON	0.803	0.809	0.006
QC	0.824	0.858	0.034
NB	0.810	0.807	-0.003
PE	0.789	0.844	0.055
NS	0.865	0.851	-0.014
NL	0.942	0.935	-0.007
YT	0.869	0.869	0.000
NT	1.002	1.017	0.015

Prowling the Pumps – January 20, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

And the upward trend continues. The average price of gasoline in Canada this week was 83.6¢ per litre – an increase of 5.8¢ per litre over last week. And although that’s 20.9¢ per litre cheaper than it was last year at this time, it’s still 11.9¢ more expensive than the 71.7¢ we were paying at the start of 2009..

While New Brunswick and Newfoundland both saw modest decreases in price, and Yukon and the Northwest Territories remained steady, the rest of Canada saw increased prices – as much as 7.6¢ per litre in Manitoba.

For the first time since December 2, 2008, there were no cities in Canada this week with gasoline prices lower than 70¢. In 22 cities, prices were between 70¢ and 80¢ per litre; in 30 prices were between 80¢ and 90¢; and in only 6 was it higher than 90¢. A big shift to the right.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Seeing as New Brunswick was one of two provinces to register a small decrease in the price of gasoline, while all but one of the others, including Ontario and Alberta, reported higher prices, it should come as no surprise that four cities in New Brunswick placed in the low-cost five. Having Canada’s largest refinery in Saint John may be part of the reason.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Whitehorse again managed to avoid the pricey five this week as Victoria and Vancouver stayed in the pricey five and welcomed newcomer Montreal.

So…last week the Prowler said he doesn’t see this price rise as the start of a trend. This week he’ll stay the course, but the firmness of his stance is weakening. Oil prices hovered around the $40.00 US per barrel mark all week with some fluctuations, although the amplitude of the fluctuations was not as great as in previous weeks. Seeing as they weren’t dipping as low, gasoline didn’t dip either. Is this the start of an upward trend?

The Prowler doesn’t think so because the economy is still in a mess – markets up for a few days, then down for a few days, wiping out all the gains; advances in one sector but declines in the others; lower interest rates, but higher unemployment and bankruptcy rates. The indicators aren’t consistent.

What could prove to be a powerful force in the coming months is the apparent change in the collective attitude south of the border. A rising tide of optimism could be a very positive catalyst for political and economic change.
We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.860	0.910	0.050
AB	0.738	0.792	0.054
SK	0.839	0.899	0.060
MB	0.767	0.843	0.076
ON	0.764	0.801	0.037
QC	0.777	0.834	0.057
NB	0.760	0.759	-0.001
PE	0.743	0.789	0.046
NS	0.792	0.818	0.026
NL	0.887	0.885	-0.002
YT	0.849	0.849	0.000
NT	0.972	0.972	0.000

Prowling the Pumps – December 16, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

The average price of gasoline in Canada decreased for the 14th consecutive week. The drop wasn’t much, 0.6¢ per litre, but it was still a drop. It would have been more, but prices actually increased in some of the larger cities like Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Hamilton and London (the national average is population-weighted).

Provincially and territorially, decreases occurred everywhere except Quebec, which remained the same as last week. The biggest drop, 12.3¢ per litre, occurred in the Northwest Territories. The other big declines were in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

For the first time since we began prowling the pumps, the price of gasoline in each of the 60 cities in the survey was below $1.00. In fact, in only one city does gas cost more than 90¢. And in six cities, it costs less than 70¢.

Big changes in the low-price five (actually six this week because of a tie for fifth place). Ontario cities have been largely replaced by Alberta cities. This is due to continued decreases out west combined with the aforementioned price increases in southern Ontario.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Wishful thinking last week was that we’d all be paying less than a buck a litre before Christmas, and that came true this week. Labrador City, the most expensive of the pricey five, came in at $0.905. And this week marks the first time that five different provinces are represented in the pricey five. Timmins has the dubious distinction of being the first Ontario city to join that elite club.

Last week the Prowler wondered if we’d see a run up in oil prices prior to the OPEC meeting December 17. Well, it seems the opposite has happened – a price decline after the cartel announced a 2.2 million barrel per day production cut. Oil prices are now hovering just above the $40 US per barrel mark. It seems the market was expecting some large non-OPEC producers to announce production cuts and when that didn’t happen, it reacted in a seriously negative way. OPEC was hoping to stabilize oil prices between $70 and $80 per barrel.

And $40 per barrel might be one of those so-called “psychological barriers” above which the price bounces around a bit, “testing” the market until it finally breaks through, then plunges another five bucks per barrel over night. That seemed to happen on the way up; no reason why it won’t happen on the way down.

So, will the other producers fall in line? Will oil prices start heading back up?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.841	0.804	-0.037
AB	0.738	0.697	-0.041
SK	0.801	0.782	-0.019
MB	0.791	0.771	-0.020
ON	0.766	0.757	-0.009
QC	0.798	0.798	0.000
NB	0.802	0.724	-0.078
PE	0.752	0.719	-0.033
NS	0.799	0.745	-0.054
NL	0.929	0.851	-0.078
YT	0.909	0.899	-0.020
NT	1.022	0.899	-0.123

Prowling the Pumps – November 25, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

Gasoline prices are still dropping, but the rate at which they’re dropping is slowing down – 2.6¢ per litre this week compared to 3.5¢ per litre last week. The price of gasoline across Canada averaged $0.819 per litre. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was only $2.08 less expensive to fill this week than last.

Provincial gasoline prices slid in everywhere in the country, but some cities – Kingston and Montreal – saw increases as much as 3.4¢ per litre. This week, for the second week in a row, the largest drop honours go to the Yukon at 7.5¢ per litre.

Overall, the average gasoline price in Canada has dropped 56.4¢ per litre since its all-time high of $1.383 per litre during the week of July 15. And this means that our hypothetical 80-litre tank now costs $45.12 less than it did almost four months ago – $110.64 then compared to $65.52 now.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Of the 60 cities surveyed this week, 58 enjoyed gasoline prices less that one dollar. That’s two more than last week. The number of cities paying less than 80¢ per litre grew to 10 from two. And for the first time in several weeks, Edmonton sneaks into the low-cost five, all of which were below 80¢ per litre for the first time.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Another first this week – first time three cities in the pricey five are below $1.00 per litre. Maybe next week, all five will be under the $1.00 mark.

Last week we questioned how long our flirtation with affordable gasoline will last. We pointed out that the decline seemed to be leveling off, and that trend continued this week.

In the past week, the price of West Texas Intermediate slipped below $50 US per barrel before climbing back to the $54 US mark. That’s the lowest it’s been since the spring of 2005.

The stock markets have fared better lately with almost a week of solid gains. Will the oil markets follow suit?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.965	0.905	-0.060
AB	0.832	0.800	-0.032
SK	0.912	0.869	-0.043
MB	0.890	0.872	-0.018
ON	0.844	0.813	-0.031
QC	0.864	0.850	-0.014
NB	0.859	0.827	-0.032
PE	0.856	0.809	-0.047
NS	0.872	0.826	-0.046
NL	0.988	0.955	-0.033
YT	1.054	0.979	-0.075
NT	1.104	1.062	-0.042

Prowling the Pumps – November 18, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

And the average price of gasoline in Canada keeps dropping – 3.5¢ per litre to $0.845 per litre. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was $2.80 less expensive to fill this week than last.

Gasoline prices slid in everywhere in the country except Northwest Territories where they remained steady, not bad considering they had the largest drop last week. This week the largest drop honours go to the Yukon at 8.5ȼ

Overall, the average gasoline price in Canada has dropped 53.8ȼ per litre since its all-time high of $1.383 per litre during the week of July 15. And this means that our hypothetical 80-litre tank now costs $43.04 less than it did almost four months ago – $110.64 then compared to $67.60 now.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Of the 60 cities surveyed this week, 56 enjoyed gasoline prices less that one dollar. That’s three more than last week. However, the big shift came in the number of cities paying less than 90ȼ per litre. Last week there were 19 cities; this week there are 43. Needless to say, the five cheapest were in Ontario.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Gander, at $0.984, is the first city in the pricey five to break the $1.00 per litre mark. Yellowknife and Whitehorse continue to jockey for most expensive city in which to buy gasoline, but, by virtue of Whitehorse dropping 8.5¢ per litre last week, Yellowknife takes top (bottom?) honours. Fort St. John is the only city in British Columbia where gas costs more than $1.00 per litre.

Last week’s question related to how much more the price of gasoline will fall. It’s still falling, but it seems to be leveling off – 3.5ȼ or so compared to 5.5ȼ to six cents a few weeks ago. Of course a lot depends on the price of oil, which is still falling.

On November 11, West Texas Intermediate crept below $60 US per barrel for the first time since March 2007. Since then, despite pirates hijacking a tanker holding two million barrels of oil, it has slipped further to less than $55 US per barrel.

With global economies continuing to decline, the demand for oil continues to decline as well. While pundits are loathe to predict how long the recession will last, some say it will be deep but brief.

Our flirtation with affordable gasoline may be brief. How brief? We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.989	0.965	-0.024
AB	0.864	0.832	-0.032
SK	0.941	0.912	-0.029
MB	0.948	0.890	-0.058
ON	0.875	0.844	-0.031
QC	0.910	0.864	-0.046
NB	0.916	0.859	-0.057
PE	0.929	0.856	-0.073
NS	0.922	0.872	-0.050
NL	1.046	0.988	-0.058
YT	1.139	1.054	-0.085
NT	1.104	1.104	0.000

Prowling the Pumps – September 30, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

The average price of gasoline in Canada dropped for the third week in a row, this time by only 2.5¢ per litre. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was exactly $2.00 less expensive to fill this week than last. Gasoline prices slid everywhere except in the Yukon and Manitoba, both of which stayed at the same price as last week.

Of those provinces that did see a drop in prices, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island led the way with decreases of 5.5¢ and 5.3¢ respectively. Ontario ranked third with a 4.7¢ decline.

Overall, the average gasoline price in Canada has dropped 20.3¢ per litre since its all-time high of $1,383 per litre during the week of July 15. And this means that our hypothetical 80-litre tank costs $16.24 less than it did two and a half months ago.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

This week it all makes sense. The province with the lowest average prices, Ontario, also has the five least expensive cities in which to buy gasoline.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

As far as the pricey five go, same players as last week, different order.
The gap between the least and most expensive is a whopping 46.1¢ per litre. The reasons – distance from refineries, population size and amount of gasoline sold. Taxes aren’t a factor because Yellowknife’s taxes are 1.8¢ per litre less than Ottawa’s.

The big story as far as oil prices are concerned is still the U.S. (and by U.S. the Prowler means global) financial crisis. Every new development sparks a price change. All parties have agreed to the bailout bill. The House of Representatives defeats the bill. President Bush stresses the importance of passing the bill. Senate leaders promise it will pass in the Senate. Obama sneezes. Just after our last report, WTI was trading at $106.88 US per barrel, rose to $115.46 per barrel, dropped to $96.37 per barrel and is sitting around $100 at the time of writing. However, despite these gyrations, the price of gasoline continues to fall. The big question now – What will happen to gasoline prices once the bill is passed?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	$/litre	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	1.333	1.315	-0.018
AB	1.199	1.198	-0.001
SK	1.279	1.262	-0.017
MB	1.232	1.232	0.000
ON	1.211	1.164	-0.047
QC	1.273	1.258	-0.015
NB	1.258	1.203	-0.055
PE	1.276	1.223	-0.053
NS	1.263	1.236	-0.027
NL	1.400	1.331	-0.069
YT	1.399	1.399	0.000
NT	1.567	1.534	-0.033

Prowling the Pumps – September 24, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

The average price of gasoline in Canada dropped a remarkable 15.5¢ this week. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was $12.40 less expensive to fill this week than last. Gasoline prices slid everywhere except in the Yukon and Northwest Territories, both of which stayed at the same price as last week.

Although hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico has abated and actual hurricanes are not a problem this week, some Gulf coast refineries are still out of commission. And only two-thirds of Gulf of Mexico oil production has been restored. This in itself should have pushed oil and gasoline prices higher, but the U.S. financial crisis seems to have had an overall dampening effect on prices.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Despite Alberta having the lowest average gasoline prices, the five least expensive cities in which to buy gasoline are all in Ontario. And Kingston reappears after a one-week absence.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Pretty much the same story as last week for the pricey five. Whitehorse back in, Victoria back out and a bit of jockeying around for the other four.

The financial crisis in the US is causing a lot of volatility in the global oil markets. WTI prices slid as low as $91.15 US per barrel last Wednesday, then rocketed $16.37 US per barrel to close at $120.92, after flirting with $130.00 mid-session. Although part of this rise was due to settling of September futures prior to October becoming the front-end month, a weakening U.S. dollar did put upward pressure on crude prices. Since Monday, oil has remained above $100 US per barrel.

As ever, we’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	$/litre	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	1.475	1.333	-0.142
AB	1.352	1.199 -0.153
SK	1.449	1.279	-0.170
MB	1.409	1.232	-0.177
ON	1.399	1.211	-0.188
QC	1.431	1.273 -0.158
NB	1.406	1.258	-0.148
PE	1.380	1.276	-0.104
NS	1.442	1.263	-0.179
NL	1.525	1.400	-0.125
YT	1.399	1.399	0.000
NT	1.567	1.567	0.000

Prowling the Pumps – September 16, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

The average price of gasoline in Canada rose 7.7¢ this week. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was $6.16 more expensive to fill this week than last. Gasoline prices rose everywhere except in the Yukon.

Here’s the situation. Hurricane Ike gained strength as it tracked across the Gulf of Mexico, but never reached higher than Category 2. However, its immense size and the storm surge it pushed caused oil companies to shut down production platforms in the Gulf and refineries along the Gulf Coast. This action seemed to prompt a significant increase in the price of gasoline all across North America. However, platforms and refineries were largely undamaged, and restart operations began soon after the storm passed.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

For the first time since June 24, Kingston is not the least expensive city in which to buy gas. In fact, for the first time since we began prowling the pumps, Kingston doesn’t even make it into the low-cost five. Ottawa now has the distinction of being the city with the cheapest gas. Must be the election.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Pretty much the same story as last week for the pricey five. Whitehorse out, Victoria in and a bit of jockeying around for the other four.

A lot of things influencing the price oil last week – Hurricane Ike, American investment bank meltdowns, continued rebel attacks on oil facilities in Nigeria – but the main stimulus seems to be a potential world-wide recession. Consequently, the WTI oil price slid to $91.42 US per barrel on September 16, its lowest since early February 2008. Gasoline, on the other hand, seem to be headed in the opposite direction…or is it?.

As ever, we’ll see what happens next week.

Prowling the Pumps – September 9, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

The average price of gasoline in Canada decreased 3.2¢ this week. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was $2.56 less expensive to fill this week than last. Gasoline prices fell in five provinces, but rose in Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and the Yukon. They remained the same in Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories.

It’s all about the weather. Hurricane Gustav missed refinery row on the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast and Hanna missed the Gulf completely. Ike crossed Cuba into the Gulf, but prices remained low, pending firmer forecasts of that storm’s path.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

New Brunswick exits the low-cost five and Alberta returns, but Ontario maintains its dominance with four cities and, of course, Kingston remains the best place in Canada to find cheap gasoline..

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Last week, it was Vancouver in, Gander out. This week it’s just the opposite, Vancouver out, Gander in. Pretty much the same story as last week for the pricey five. Substitute Vancouver for Gander.

A number of factors are impacting oil prices. Hurricane Ike and the path it will take across the Gulf of Mexico adds uncertainty to the equation and possibly an oil price hike. The U.S. government bail-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, entities which own or guarantee more than half of the U.S. mortgage market, strengthened the U.S. dollar causing commodity prices to fall. OPEC, meeting in Vienna this week, was not expected to make any changes in its production levels; however it announced a half-million barrel per day production cut in an effort to support an oil price around the $100 US per barrel mark. Oil prices rose slightly on this news, but settled back to about $102 US. Overall, oil prices are down about $45 per barrel from their record high in July.

We’ll see what happens next week.

Prowling the Pumps – September 2, 2008

On the case, lurking at service stations across the country to find the lowest and highest gasoline prices in Canada.

Average across Canada

Another rise, but it can be explained away. Really. The average price of gasoline in Canada climbed 5.6¢ this week. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was $4.48 more expensive to fill this week than last. Gasoline prices rose in seven provinces, but dropped in New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, the Yukon, the Northwest Territories. They remained the same in Prince Edward Island. However, there is a trend here. Newfoundland and Labrador, the Yukon and the Northwest Territories lag behind the other provinces when gasoline prices are dropping, so one would expect them lag when prices are rising as well. It has to do with extended supply lines, storage capability and bulk purchase. New Brunswick did well (more on this later) because it is home to Canada’s largest refinery.

So. The explanation for rising gasoline prices. Tropical Storm Gustav was heading straight through the Gulf of Mexico to refinery row on the Texas/Louisiana coast, gathering strength as it crossed the warm gulf waters. Energy traders expected Gustav to become a hurricane and severely damage not only refineries but offshore production platforms. Consequently, oil and gasoline prices climbed. Although Gustav was still a devastating event, it spared the refineries and production platforms. Consequently, prices dropped, but did so after the weekly retail fuel price survey was conducted.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Alberta is bounced out of the low-cost five, not by Ontario, but by New Brunswick. Not surprising seeing as the Saint John refinery is the largest in Canada. And very opportune timing-wise. Visitors to New Brunswick can take advantage of the cheap gasoline while they’re taking in the spectacular fall colours.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Pretty much the same story as last week for the pricey five. Substitute Vancouver for Gander.

Following the demise of Gustav, West Texas Oil prices dropped below $110 US per barrel for the first time in recent memory. April 2007 to be precise. We’re probably in for a roller coaster ride at least until hurricane season is over in another three months, especially with Hanna, Ike and Josephine warming up in the wings.
We’ll see what happens next week.

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