Where Does Your Gasoline Dollar Go?

There are three major components to gasoline pricing: crude costs, marketing and refining margins and taxes. And they vary according to world demand for, and supply, of oil; North American demand for, and supply of, gasoline; and where you live in Canada.

In 2009, when Canadian Par crude oil averaged $65.19 per barrel, crude costs accounted for 43.7 per cent of the cost of gasoline, taxes accounted for 33.2 per cent and refining and marketing accounted for 23 per cent. As oil prices rose in 2010, crude costs accounted for 47.3 per cent of the cost of gasoline, taxes for 33 per cent and refining and marketing 19.7 per cent. Thus far in 2011, Canadian Par prices have averaged $95.40 per barrel, and crude costs have risen to 49 per cent of the cost of gasoline, taxes for 30.8 per cent and marketing and refining 20.2 per cent.

The reason taxes have fallen as a percentage is that most of the tax is a fixed amount per litre. For example, the federal excise tax in gasoline is a flat 10 cents per litre, no matter the total pump price. The same is true for some provincial taxes.

Most of the regional differences in price are due to taxes varying from province to province and at time from city to city. In Edmonton, as in all of Alberta, there is no provincial sales tax. In cities such as Montreal, Vancouver and Victoria, there are municipal taxes and in Vancouver, there is a carbon tax.

All Aboard!

If you have trust issues, this isn’t for you.

A group in Europe is collaborating on the development of  the SATRE project. The road train project uses technology to link up vehicles behind a truck that sets the pace for the group. Researchers are trying to answer the question “How close would you drive to the car in front of you when you are not in control?”

The first successful demonstration of the technology that controls and links the line of cars has been completed at the Volvo Proving Ground close to Gothenburg, Sweden. The ultimate goal of the project is to be able to implement this platooning or convoy approach to driving in order to improve both safety and fuel efficiency on Europe’s highways.

But really, do you really want to hurdle down the highway at 90 km per hour, hands free, reading the paper or enjoying your breakfast burrito as technology takes it’s turn at getting you safely to the office? Wait a minute, that might not be bad.

But just because we can, doesn’t always mean we should.

Natural Gas Pricing

The bad news about the winter of 2011 is that it’s here.

The good news is that it may not cost as much to heat our homes as it has in previous winters. Environment Canada assures us temperatures will be slightly higher than normal, and the National Energy Board is saying that “for the second year in a row, Canadian consumers will likely pay relatively low prices for natural gas.”

But, winter weather is unpredictable and sure, a cold snap could cause a temporary increase in gas prices, but market fundamentals suggest temporary is the operative word.

So, why the low prices? The Canadian Gas Association points to sustained production with only moderate growth in demand. Add to that the increased impact of unconventional sources, especially shale gas in British Columbia and the United States, and the result is a North American natural gas market that is “well supplied,” so much so that gas storage levels are above the five-year average.

This causes downward pressure on natural gas prices. The wholesale gas price from January through September 2010 averaged $4.60 per MMBtu, about 34 per cent lower than the five-year average of $7.00 and this is expected to continue through the winter.

Enjoy it while you can. Depressed prices mean decreased drilling and, over time, a reduction in new supply. As well, prices for oil and coal are rising, and natural gas is seen as a lower-cost replacement for transportation fuel and thermal electricity generation. Short supply and increased demand may mean expensive winters in the future.

Prowling the Pumps – February 10, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

Another slight rise – up 1.7¢ per litre this week to 85.1¢. That gives us a cumulative price increase of 13.4¢ since the year began. In fact, we have seen price increases in five of the first six weeks of 2009. The good news is that the average price of gasoline in Canada is 19.1¢ lower now than it was one year ago.

Sizeable gains in Ontario (3.5¢ per litre), Quebec (3.2¢ per litre), New Brunswick (2.6¢ per litre) and Nova Scotia (2.9¢ per litre) were offset by a slight decrease in price in Alberta (0.3¢ per litre) and no change in price in Manitoba, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, Yukon and the Northwest Territories, and only slight increases everywhere else.

Distribution of Gasoline Prices in 60 Canadian Cities
In five cities, six fewer than last week, prices were between 70¢ and 80¢ per litre; in 41 cities, two more than last week, prices were between 80¢ and 90¢; and in 13 cities, four more than last week, it higher than 90¢. In only one city were prices higher than $1.00 per litre.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

As one would expect when prices are rising everywhere but Alberta, Lethbridge, Edmonton and Lloydminster made it to the low-price five, ousting Sudbury and Edmundston. And, again as one would expect, the low-cost five aren’t as low-cost as they were a few weeks ago.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Victoria has the cheapest gas of the pricey five, at 92.9¢ per litre, and Lloydminster has the costliest gas of the low-price five at 79.9¢ per litre, a difference of 13¢ per litre or $10.40 per 80-litre tank. But, excluding taxes, the price difference is a mere penny per litre. The other 12¢ is the difference in taxes.

As mentioned above, the average price of gasoline in Canada has risen 13.4¢ per litre since the beginning of the year, while the price of oil has been trading in a narrow range between $40 US and $50 US per barrel. In the past few days, we have seen oil dip even lower due to higher than expected storage inventories, poor economic performance and dissatisfaction with President Obama’s bailout package. Consequently, the Prowler is forecasting cheaper gasoline in the near future.

We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.904	0.910	0.006
AB	0.798	0.795	-0.003
SK	0.882	0.887	0.005
MB	0.842	0.842	0.000
ON	0.809	0.844	0.035
QC	0.858	0.890	0.032
NB	0.807	0.833	0.026
PE	0.844	0.844	0.000
NS	0.851	0.880	0.029
NL	0.935	0.935	0.000
YT	0.869	0.869	0.000
NT	1.017	1.017	0.000

Prowling the Pumps – January 27, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

Despite most provinces and territories showing a slight gain in prices, the average price of gasoline actually dropped 1.8¢ per litre this week. The discrepancy lies in the population-based weighting. Gasoline in major cities declined, but elsewhere, it rose. The average price of gasoline in Canada this week was 81.8¢ per litre. And although that’s 21.9¢ per litre cheaper than it was last year at this time, it’s still 10.7¢ more expensive than the 71.7¢ we were paying at the start of 2009.

Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec saw modest decreases in price, and Prince Edward Island remained steady, the rest of Canada saw increased prices – as much as 4.7¢ per litre in Nova Scotia.

In 15 cities, prices were between 70¢ and 80¢ per litre; in 37 prices were between 80¢ and 90¢; and in 7 it higher than 90¢. And one city broke the $1.00 barrier on the way up.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Last week, New Brunswick dominated the low-cost five; this week it’s back to Ontario with Lethbridge sneaking in.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Once again Whitehorse dodged the costly five, and the trend this year seems to be Newfoundland and Labrador and British Columbia with a special guest from another province. And other than Yellowknife, higher taxes are another trend.

With the price of oil bouncing around between $40 US to $48 US per barrel, and good reasons for it staying in that range – lots of production, lots in storage and little demand; it seems to the Prowler that gasoline prices may stabilize for a while.

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.910	0.912	0.002
AB	0.792	0.798	0.006
SK	0.899	0.897	-0.002
MB	0.843	0.842	-0.001
ON	0.801	0.803	0.002
QC	0.834	0.824	-0.010
NB	0.759	0.810	0.051
PE	0.789	0.789	0.000
NS	0.818	0.865	0.047
NL	0.885	0.942	0.057
YT	0.849	0.869	0.020
NT	0.972	1.002	0.030

Prowling the Pumps – January 20, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

And the upward trend continues. The average price of gasoline in Canada this week was 83.6¢ per litre – an increase of 5.8¢ per litre over last week. And although that’s 20.9¢ per litre cheaper than it was last year at this time, it’s still 11.9¢ more expensive than the 71.7¢ we were paying at the start of 2009..

While New Brunswick and Newfoundland both saw modest decreases in price, and Yukon and the Northwest Territories remained steady, the rest of Canada saw increased prices – as much as 7.6¢ per litre in Manitoba.

For the first time since December 2, 2008, there were no cities in Canada this week with gasoline prices lower than 70¢. In 22 cities, prices were between 70¢ and 80¢ per litre; in 30 prices were between 80¢ and 90¢; and in only 6 was it higher than 90¢. A big shift to the right.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Seeing as New Brunswick was one of two provinces to register a small decrease in the price of gasoline, while all but one of the others, including Ontario and Alberta, reported higher prices, it should come as no surprise that four cities in New Brunswick placed in the low-cost five. Having Canada’s largest refinery in Saint John may be part of the reason.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Whitehorse again managed to avoid the pricey five this week as Victoria and Vancouver stayed in the pricey five and welcomed newcomer Montreal.

So…last week the Prowler said he doesn’t see this price rise as the start of a trend. This week he’ll stay the course, but the firmness of his stance is weakening. Oil prices hovered around the $40.00 US per barrel mark all week with some fluctuations, although the amplitude of the fluctuations was not as great as in previous weeks. Seeing as they weren’t dipping as low, gasoline didn’t dip either. Is this the start of an upward trend?

The Prowler doesn’t think so because the economy is still in a mess – markets up for a few days, then down for a few days, wiping out all the gains; advances in one sector but declines in the others; lower interest rates, but higher unemployment and bankruptcy rates. The indicators aren’t consistent.

What could prove to be a powerful force in the coming months is the apparent change in the collective attitude south of the border. A rising tide of optimism could be a very positive catalyst for political and economic change.
We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.860	0.910	0.050
AB	0.738	0.792	0.054
SK	0.839	0.899	0.060
MB	0.767	0.843	0.076
ON	0.764	0.801	0.037
QC	0.777	0.834	0.057
NB	0.760	0.759	-0.001
PE	0.743	0.789	0.046
NS	0.792	0.818	0.026
NL	0.887	0.885	-0.002
YT	0.849	0.849	0.000
NT	0.972	0.972	0.000

Prowling the Pumps – January 13, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

We start the new year with a reversal of trends. The average price of gasoline in Canada is on the rise – 5.2¢ per litre last week and another 0.9¢ this week. Still, it’s 28¢ per litre cheaper than it was last year at this time.

Provincially and territorially, increases occurred everywhere except Ontario and the Yukon. The biggest rise, 0.9¢ per litre, occurred in New Brunswick. The biggest drop, 15.1¢ per litre, in the Yukon.
This probably isn’t a trend – more on that later.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Chicoutimi entered the low-cost five last week, and was joined by Drummondville this week. The remaining three positions are filled by the usual suspects from Ontario and Alberta. .Interesting to note that last year, when cities from Quebec were listed, they were usually in the pricey five.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Whitehorse managed to avoid the pricey five this week as BC made inroads with Victoria and Vancouver.

So…the Prowler doesn’t see this price rise as the start of a trend. Oil prices are still bouncing around like a monkey on speed, one day rising above $40 US per barrel and the next sinking past $30 US per barrel. One day it’s the crisis in the Middle East causing prices to soar, the next it’s larger than expected inventories causing prices to plummet. OPEC cuts production, but the price still falls because, say the pundits, the market has already taken the cuts into consideration.

Meanwhile, gasoline is still reasonably priced, although the prowler did hear some grumbling at the pumps. Strange that a month or so ago we were dancing in the street because the price had dropped below 90¢ per litre, but now we’re grousing that it’s gone back up to almost 80¢. Did we get used to low prices that quickly? Or are we afraid we’ll have to put the SUV back in the garage?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.827	0.860	0.033
AB	0.691	0.738	0.047
SK	0.749	0.839	0.090
MB	0.754	0.767	0.013
ON	0.773	0.764	-0.009
QC	0.760	0.777	0.017
NB	0.670	0.760	0.090
PE	0.689	0.743	0.054
NS	0.707	0.792	0.085
NL	0.818	0.887	0.069
YT	1.000	0.849	-0.151
NT	0.924	0.972	0.048

Prowling the Pumps – December 9, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

And, much to the joy of Canadians across the country, gasoline prices continue their descent. The average price dropped 4ȼ per litre this week, a little more than in previous . weeks. The price of gasoline across Canada averaged $0.757 per litre. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was another $3.20 less expensive to fill this week than last.

Gasoline prices dropped everywhere in Canada this week except New Brunswick, where the price rose nine-tenths of a cent (okay, maybe the joy wasn’t totally cross-country). The biggest drop, at 6.1ȼ per litre, was in Saskatchewan

Overall, the average gasoline price in Canada has dropped 62.6ȼ per litre since its all-time high of $1.383 per litre during the week of July 15. And this means that our hypothetical 80-litre tank now costs $50.08 less than it did

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Of the 60 cities surveyed this week, 59 enjoyed gasoline prices less that one dollar, with only Yellowknife paying more than $1.00 per litre – $1.022 to be exact. The number of cities paying less than 80ȼ per litre grew to 33 from 22, and that includes two cities – Kingston and Ottawa – where they’re paying less than 70ȼ per litre.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Despite the Northwest Territories enjoying a price decrease this week, Yellowknife remains the most expensive city in which to buy gasoline in Canada, and the only city where gas is more than one dollar per litre – but only by 2.2ȼ. Maybe by Christmas we’ll all be paying less than a buck.

The question of the week last week was “we’re enjoying lower cost gasoline, diesel and heating oil just in time for winter. How soon will this change?” Apparently not for a while yet. The price of West Texas Intermediate keeps flirting with the $40.00 US per barrel mark, and so long as that happens, we’ll see fuel prices holding steady where they are now. Or dropping.

One pundit opined that oil prices could go as low as $20.00 per barrel if China’s economy continues to decline, but others were quick to negate that idea. OPEC meets on December 17, so we may see a run up in oil prices prior to that meeting. Maybe we’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.872	0.841	-0.031
AB	0.781	0.738	-0.043
SK	0.862	0.801	-0.061
MB	0.850	0.791	-0.059
ON	0.807	0.766	-0.041
QC	0.820	0.798	-0.022
NB	0.793	0.802	0.009
PE	0.778	0.752	-0.026
NS	0.835	0.799	0.036
NL	0.955	0.929	-0.026
YT	0.954	0.909	-0.045
NT	1.062	1.022	-0.040

Prowling the Pumps – November 25, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

Gasoline prices are still dropping, but the rate at which they’re dropping is slowing down – 2.6¢ per litre this week compared to 3.5¢ per litre last week. The price of gasoline across Canada averaged $0.819 per litre. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was only $2.08 less expensive to fill this week than last.

Provincial gasoline prices slid in everywhere in the country, but some cities – Kingston and Montreal – saw increases as much as 3.4¢ per litre. This week, for the second week in a row, the largest drop honours go to the Yukon at 7.5¢ per litre.

Overall, the average gasoline price in Canada has dropped 56.4¢ per litre since its all-time high of $1.383 per litre during the week of July 15. And this means that our hypothetical 80-litre tank now costs $45.12 less than it did almost four months ago – $110.64 then compared to $65.52 now.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Of the 60 cities surveyed this week, 58 enjoyed gasoline prices less that one dollar. That’s two more than last week. The number of cities paying less than 80¢ per litre grew to 10 from two. And for the first time in several weeks, Edmonton sneaks into the low-cost five, all of which were below 80¢ per litre for the first time.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Another first this week – first time three cities in the pricey five are below $1.00 per litre. Maybe next week, all five will be under the $1.00 mark.

Last week we questioned how long our flirtation with affordable gasoline will last. We pointed out that the decline seemed to be leveling off, and that trend continued this week.

In the past week, the price of West Texas Intermediate slipped below $50 US per barrel before climbing back to the $54 US mark. That’s the lowest it’s been since the spring of 2005.

The stock markets have fared better lately with almost a week of solid gains. Will the oil markets follow suit?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.965	0.905	-0.060
AB	0.832	0.800	-0.032
SK	0.912	0.869	-0.043
MB	0.890	0.872	-0.018
ON	0.844	0.813	-0.031
QC	0.864	0.850	-0.014
NB	0.859	0.827	-0.032
PE	0.856	0.809	-0.047
NS	0.872	0.826	-0.046
NL	0.988	0.955	-0.033
YT	1.054	0.979	-0.075
NT	1.104	1.062	-0.042

Prowling the Pumps – November 18, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

And the average price of gasoline in Canada keeps dropping – 3.5¢ per litre to $0.845 per litre. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was $2.80 less expensive to fill this week than last.

Gasoline prices slid in everywhere in the country except Northwest Territories where they remained steady, not bad considering they had the largest drop last week. This week the largest drop honours go to the Yukon at 8.5ȼ

Overall, the average gasoline price in Canada has dropped 53.8ȼ per litre since its all-time high of $1.383 per litre during the week of July 15. And this means that our hypothetical 80-litre tank now costs $43.04 less than it did almost four months ago – $110.64 then compared to $67.60 now.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Of the 60 cities surveyed this week, 56 enjoyed gasoline prices less that one dollar. That’s three more than last week. However, the big shift came in the number of cities paying less than 90ȼ per litre. Last week there were 19 cities; this week there are 43. Needless to say, the five cheapest were in Ontario.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Gander, at $0.984, is the first city in the pricey five to break the $1.00 per litre mark. Yellowknife and Whitehorse continue to jockey for most expensive city in which to buy gasoline, but, by virtue of Whitehorse dropping 8.5¢ per litre last week, Yellowknife takes top (bottom?) honours. Fort St. John is the only city in British Columbia where gas costs more than $1.00 per litre.

Last week’s question related to how much more the price of gasoline will fall. It’s still falling, but it seems to be leveling off – 3.5ȼ or so compared to 5.5ȼ to six cents a few weeks ago. Of course a lot depends on the price of oil, which is still falling.

On November 11, West Texas Intermediate crept below $60 US per barrel for the first time since March 2007. Since then, despite pirates hijacking a tanker holding two million barrels of oil, it has slipped further to less than $55 US per barrel.

With global economies continuing to decline, the demand for oil continues to decline as well. While pundits are loathe to predict how long the recession will last, some say it will be deep but brief.

Our flirtation with affordable gasoline may be brief. How brief? We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.989	0.965	-0.024
AB	0.864	0.832	-0.032
SK	0.941	0.912	-0.029
MB	0.948	0.890	-0.058
ON	0.875	0.844	-0.031
QC	0.910	0.864	-0.046
NB	0.916	0.859	-0.057
PE	0.929	0.856	-0.073
NS	0.922	0.872	-0.050
NL	1.046	0.988	-0.058
YT	1.139	1.054	-0.085
NT	1.104	1.104	0.000

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