Prowling the Pumps – February 10, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

Another slight rise – up 1.7¢ per litre this week to 85.1¢. That gives us a cumulative price increase of 13.4¢ since the year began. In fact, we have seen price increases in five of the first six weeks of 2009. The good news is that the average price of gasoline in Canada is 19.1¢ lower now than it was one year ago.

Sizeable gains in Ontario (3.5¢ per litre), Quebec (3.2¢ per litre), New Brunswick (2.6¢ per litre) and Nova Scotia (2.9¢ per litre) were offset by a slight decrease in price in Alberta (0.3¢ per litre) and no change in price in Manitoba, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, Yukon and the Northwest Territories, and only slight increases everywhere else.

Distribution of Gasoline Prices in 60 Canadian Cities
In five cities, six fewer than last week, prices were between 70¢ and 80¢ per litre; in 41 cities, two more than last week, prices were between 80¢ and 90¢; and in 13 cities, four more than last week, it higher than 90¢. In only one city were prices higher than $1.00 per litre.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

As one would expect when prices are rising everywhere but Alberta, Lethbridge, Edmonton and Lloydminster made it to the low-price five, ousting Sudbury and Edmundston. And, again as one would expect, the low-cost five aren’t as low-cost as they were a few weeks ago.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Victoria has the cheapest gas of the pricey five, at 92.9¢ per litre, and Lloydminster has the costliest gas of the low-price five at 79.9¢ per litre, a difference of 13¢ per litre or $10.40 per 80-litre tank. But, excluding taxes, the price difference is a mere penny per litre. The other 12¢ is the difference in taxes.

As mentioned above, the average price of gasoline in Canada has risen 13.4¢ per litre since the beginning of the year, while the price of oil has been trading in a narrow range between $40 US and $50 US per barrel. In the past few days, we have seen oil dip even lower due to higher than expected storage inventories, poor economic performance and dissatisfaction with President Obama’s bailout package. Consequently, the Prowler is forecasting cheaper gasoline in the near future.

We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.904	0.910	0.006
AB	0.798	0.795	-0.003
SK	0.882	0.887	0.005
MB	0.842	0.842	0.000
ON	0.809	0.844	0.035
QC	0.858	0.890	0.032
NB	0.807	0.833	0.026
PE	0.844	0.844	0.000
NS	0.851	0.880	0.029
NL	0.935	0.935	0.000
YT	0.869	0.869	0.000
NT	1.017	1.017	0.000

Prowling the Pumps – Feb. 3, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

Back on the rise – up 1.6¢ per litre this week. Despite slight drops in five jurisdictions and no change in three others, hefty rises in Quebec and Prince Edward Island lifted the average price. However, the overall changes of the last three weeks are tame in comparison with those of the summer, so the Prowler is willing to say that, for the early part of the year, prices have been fairly stable.

The biggest increase this week, 5.5¢ per litre, was in Prince Edward Island. Quebec wasn’t far behind at 3.4¢ per litre. The biggest decrease, at 1.5¢ per litre, was in Saskatchewan.

In 11 cities, four fewer than last week, prices were between 70¢ and 80¢ per litre; in 39 cities, two more than last week, prices were between 80¢ and 90¢; and in nine cities, again two more than last week, it higher than 90¢. In only one city were prices higher than $1.00 per litre.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

For the early part of the year, the Prowler is seeing more variation in the members of the low-cost five (or six in case of a tie). Last year it was all Ontario and Alberta, but this year, New Brunswick is becoming more prominent, despite significantly higher taxes than the other two. This may have something to do with Canada’s largest refinery being in Saint John, although Saint John itself rarely cracks the cheap five.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Not much change in the pricey five with respect to members, just a bit of jockeying for position.

Excluding taxes, Yellowknife has the most expensive gasoline in the country, 13¢ per litre more expensive than the next priciest city, Montreal. However, taxes in Montreal are 12.5¢ per litre greater than in Yellowknife, so other than Yellowknife, taxes are the big reason for inclusion in the pricey five. Both Vancouver and Montreal have municipal carbon taxes, and Newfoundland and Labrador has high taxes period.

With the price of oil hovering around the $41.00 US per barrel mark, one (in this case one meaning the Prowler) would think that gasoline prices would have gone down from last week when average oil prices were higher. Prices of other petroleum products either remained steady or dropped slightly, so why did gasoline prices rise? The prowler’s guess is demand, although, if that were the case, one would think heating oil prices, especially in the Maritimes would be going through the roof. In any case, the increase was only 1.6¢ per litre and that really doesn’t warrant much concern. Or does it?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.912	0.904	-0.008
AB	0.798	0.798	0.000
SK	0.897	0.882	-0.015
MB	0.842	0.842	0.000
ON	0.803	0.809	0.006
QC	0.824	0.858	0.034
NB	0.810	0.807	-0.003
PE	0.789	0.844	0.055
NS	0.865	0.851	-0.014
NL	0.942	0.935	-0.007
YT	0.869	0.869	0.000
NT	1.002	1.017	0.015

Prowling the Pumps – January 27, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

Despite most provinces and territories showing a slight gain in prices, the average price of gasoline actually dropped 1.8¢ per litre this week. The discrepancy lies in the population-based weighting. Gasoline in major cities declined, but elsewhere, it rose. The average price of gasoline in Canada this week was 81.8¢ per litre. And although that’s 21.9¢ per litre cheaper than it was last year at this time, it’s still 10.7¢ more expensive than the 71.7¢ we were paying at the start of 2009.

Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec saw modest decreases in price, and Prince Edward Island remained steady, the rest of Canada saw increased prices – as much as 4.7¢ per litre in Nova Scotia.

In 15 cities, prices were between 70¢ and 80¢ per litre; in 37 prices were between 80¢ and 90¢; and in 7 it higher than 90¢. And one city broke the $1.00 barrier on the way up.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Last week, New Brunswick dominated the low-cost five; this week it’s back to Ontario with Lethbridge sneaking in.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Once again Whitehorse dodged the costly five, and the trend this year seems to be Newfoundland and Labrador and British Columbia with a special guest from another province. And other than Yellowknife, higher taxes are another trend.

With the price of oil bouncing around between $40 US to $48 US per barrel, and good reasons for it staying in that range – lots of production, lots in storage and little demand; it seems to the Prowler that gasoline prices may stabilize for a while.

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.910	0.912	0.002
AB	0.792	0.798	0.006
SK	0.899	0.897	-0.002
MB	0.843	0.842	-0.001
ON	0.801	0.803	0.002
QC	0.834	0.824	-0.010
NB	0.759	0.810	0.051
PE	0.789	0.789	0.000
NS	0.818	0.865	0.047
NL	0.885	0.942	0.057
YT	0.849	0.869	0.020
NT	0.972	1.002	0.030

Prowling the Pumps – January 20, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

And the upward trend continues. The average price of gasoline in Canada this week was 83.6¢ per litre – an increase of 5.8¢ per litre over last week. And although that’s 20.9¢ per litre cheaper than it was last year at this time, it’s still 11.9¢ more expensive than the 71.7¢ we were paying at the start of 2009..

While New Brunswick and Newfoundland both saw modest decreases in price, and Yukon and the Northwest Territories remained steady, the rest of Canada saw increased prices – as much as 7.6¢ per litre in Manitoba.

For the first time since December 2, 2008, there were no cities in Canada this week with gasoline prices lower than 70¢. In 22 cities, prices were between 70¢ and 80¢ per litre; in 30 prices were between 80¢ and 90¢; and in only 6 was it higher than 90¢. A big shift to the right.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Seeing as New Brunswick was one of two provinces to register a small decrease in the price of gasoline, while all but one of the others, including Ontario and Alberta, reported higher prices, it should come as no surprise that four cities in New Brunswick placed in the low-cost five. Having Canada’s largest refinery in Saint John may be part of the reason.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Whitehorse again managed to avoid the pricey five this week as Victoria and Vancouver stayed in the pricey five and welcomed newcomer Montreal.

So…last week the Prowler said he doesn’t see this price rise as the start of a trend. This week he’ll stay the course, but the firmness of his stance is weakening. Oil prices hovered around the $40.00 US per barrel mark all week with some fluctuations, although the amplitude of the fluctuations was not as great as in previous weeks. Seeing as they weren’t dipping as low, gasoline didn’t dip either. Is this the start of an upward trend?

The Prowler doesn’t think so because the economy is still in a mess – markets up for a few days, then down for a few days, wiping out all the gains; advances in one sector but declines in the others; lower interest rates, but higher unemployment and bankruptcy rates. The indicators aren’t consistent.

What could prove to be a powerful force in the coming months is the apparent change in the collective attitude south of the border. A rising tide of optimism could be a very positive catalyst for political and economic change.
We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.860	0.910	0.050
AB	0.738	0.792	0.054
SK	0.839	0.899	0.060
MB	0.767	0.843	0.076
ON	0.764	0.801	0.037
QC	0.777	0.834	0.057
NB	0.760	0.759	-0.001
PE	0.743	0.789	0.046
NS	0.792	0.818	0.026
NL	0.887	0.885	-0.002
YT	0.849	0.849	0.000
NT	0.972	0.972	0.000

Prowling the Pumps – January 13, 2009

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

We start the new year with a reversal of trends. The average price of gasoline in Canada is on the rise – 5.2¢ per litre last week and another 0.9¢ this week. Still, it’s 28¢ per litre cheaper than it was last year at this time.

Provincially and territorially, increases occurred everywhere except Ontario and the Yukon. The biggest rise, 0.9¢ per litre, occurred in New Brunswick. The biggest drop, 15.1¢ per litre, in the Yukon.
This probably isn’t a trend – more on that later.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Chicoutimi entered the low-cost five last week, and was joined by Drummondville this week. The remaining three positions are filled by the usual suspects from Ontario and Alberta. .Interesting to note that last year, when cities from Quebec were listed, they were usually in the pricey five.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Whitehorse managed to avoid the pricey five this week as BC made inroads with Victoria and Vancouver.

So…the Prowler doesn’t see this price rise as the start of a trend. Oil prices are still bouncing around like a monkey on speed, one day rising above $40 US per barrel and the next sinking past $30 US per barrel. One day it’s the crisis in the Middle East causing prices to soar, the next it’s larger than expected inventories causing prices to plummet. OPEC cuts production, but the price still falls because, say the pundits, the market has already taken the cuts into consideration.

Meanwhile, gasoline is still reasonably priced, although the prowler did hear some grumbling at the pumps. Strange that a month or so ago we were dancing in the street because the price had dropped below 90¢ per litre, but now we’re grousing that it’s gone back up to almost 80¢. Did we get used to low prices that quickly? Or are we afraid we’ll have to put the SUV back in the garage?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.827	0.860	0.033
AB	0.691	0.738	0.047
SK	0.749	0.839	0.090
MB	0.754	0.767	0.013
ON	0.773	0.764	-0.009
QC	0.760	0.777	0.017
NB	0.670	0.760	0.090
PE	0.689	0.743	0.054
NS	0.707	0.792	0.085
NL	0.818	0.887	0.069
YT	1.000	0.849	-0.151
NT	0.924	0.972	0.048

Prowling the Pumps – December 16, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

The average price of gasoline in Canada decreased for the 14th consecutive week. The drop wasn’t much, 0.6¢ per litre, but it was still a drop. It would have been more, but prices actually increased in some of the larger cities like Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Hamilton and London (the national average is population-weighted).

Provincially and territorially, decreases occurred everywhere except Quebec, which remained the same as last week. The biggest drop, 12.3¢ per litre, occurred in the Northwest Territories. The other big declines were in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

For the first time since we began prowling the pumps, the price of gasoline in each of the 60 cities in the survey was below $1.00. In fact, in only one city does gas cost more than 90¢. And in six cities, it costs less than 70¢.

Big changes in the low-price five (actually six this week because of a tie for fifth place). Ontario cities have been largely replaced by Alberta cities. This is due to continued decreases out west combined with the aforementioned price increases in southern Ontario.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Wishful thinking last week was that we’d all be paying less than a buck a litre before Christmas, and that came true this week. Labrador City, the most expensive of the pricey five, came in at $0.905. And this week marks the first time that five different provinces are represented in the pricey five. Timmins has the dubious distinction of being the first Ontario city to join that elite club.

Last week the Prowler wondered if we’d see a run up in oil prices prior to the OPEC meeting December 17. Well, it seems the opposite has happened – a price decline after the cartel announced a 2.2 million barrel per day production cut. Oil prices are now hovering just above the $40 US per barrel mark. It seems the market was expecting some large non-OPEC producers to announce production cuts and when that didn’t happen, it reacted in a seriously negative way. OPEC was hoping to stabilize oil prices between $70 and $80 per barrel.

And $40 per barrel might be one of those so-called “psychological barriers” above which the price bounces around a bit, “testing” the market until it finally breaks through, then plunges another five bucks per barrel over night. That seemed to happen on the way up; no reason why it won’t happen on the way down.

So, will the other producers fall in line? Will oil prices start heading back up?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.841	0.804	-0.037
AB	0.738	0.697	-0.041
SK	0.801	0.782	-0.019
MB	0.791	0.771	-0.020
ON	0.766	0.757	-0.009
QC	0.798	0.798	0.000
NB	0.802	0.724	-0.078
PE	0.752	0.719	-0.033
NS	0.799	0.745	-0.054
NL	0.929	0.851	-0.078
YT	0.909	0.899	-0.020
NT	1.022	0.899	-0.123

Prowling the Pumps – December 9, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

And, much to the joy of Canadians across the country, gasoline prices continue their descent. The average price dropped 4ȼ per litre this week, a little more than in previous . weeks. The price of gasoline across Canada averaged $0.757 per litre. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was another $3.20 less expensive to fill this week than last.

Gasoline prices dropped everywhere in Canada this week except New Brunswick, where the price rose nine-tenths of a cent (okay, maybe the joy wasn’t totally cross-country). The biggest drop, at 6.1ȼ per litre, was in Saskatchewan

Overall, the average gasoline price in Canada has dropped 62.6ȼ per litre since its all-time high of $1.383 per litre during the week of July 15. And this means that our hypothetical 80-litre tank now costs $50.08 less than it did

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Of the 60 cities surveyed this week, 59 enjoyed gasoline prices less that one dollar, with only Yellowknife paying more than $1.00 per litre – $1.022 to be exact. The number of cities paying less than 80ȼ per litre grew to 33 from 22, and that includes two cities – Kingston and Ottawa – where they’re paying less than 70ȼ per litre.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Despite the Northwest Territories enjoying a price decrease this week, Yellowknife remains the most expensive city in which to buy gasoline in Canada, and the only city where gas is more than one dollar per litre – but only by 2.2ȼ. Maybe by Christmas we’ll all be paying less than a buck.

The question of the week last week was “we’re enjoying lower cost gasoline, diesel and heating oil just in time for winter. How soon will this change?” Apparently not for a while yet. The price of West Texas Intermediate keeps flirting with the $40.00 US per barrel mark, and so long as that happens, we’ll see fuel prices holding steady where they are now. Or dropping.

One pundit opined that oil prices could go as low as $20.00 per barrel if China’s economy continues to decline, but others were quick to negate that idea. OPEC meets on December 17, so we may see a run up in oil prices prior to that meeting. Maybe we’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.872	0.841	-0.031
AB	0.781	0.738	-0.043
SK	0.862	0.801	-0.061
MB	0.850	0.791	-0.059
ON	0.807	0.766	-0.041
QC	0.820	0.798	-0.022
NB	0.793	0.802	0.009
PE	0.778	0.752	-0.026
NS	0.835	0.799	0.036
NL	0.955	0.929	-0.026
YT	0.954	0.909	-0.045
NT	1.062	1.022	-0.040

Prowling the Pumps – November 25, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

Gasoline prices are still dropping, but the rate at which they’re dropping is slowing down – 2.6¢ per litre this week compared to 3.5¢ per litre last week. The price of gasoline across Canada averaged $0.819 per litre. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was only $2.08 less expensive to fill this week than last.

Provincial gasoline prices slid in everywhere in the country, but some cities – Kingston and Montreal – saw increases as much as 3.4¢ per litre. This week, for the second week in a row, the largest drop honours go to the Yukon at 7.5¢ per litre.

Overall, the average gasoline price in Canada has dropped 56.4¢ per litre since its all-time high of $1.383 per litre during the week of July 15. And this means that our hypothetical 80-litre tank now costs $45.12 less than it did almost four months ago – $110.64 then compared to $65.52 now.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Of the 60 cities surveyed this week, 58 enjoyed gasoline prices less that one dollar. That’s two more than last week. The number of cities paying less than 80¢ per litre grew to 10 from two. And for the first time in several weeks, Edmonton sneaks into the low-cost five, all of which were below 80¢ per litre for the first time.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Another first this week – first time three cities in the pricey five are below $1.00 per litre. Maybe next week, all five will be under the $1.00 mark.

Last week we questioned how long our flirtation with affordable gasoline will last. We pointed out that the decline seemed to be leveling off, and that trend continued this week.

In the past week, the price of West Texas Intermediate slipped below $50 US per barrel before climbing back to the $54 US mark. That’s the lowest it’s been since the spring of 2005.

The stock markets have fared better lately with almost a week of solid gains. Will the oil markets follow suit?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.965	0.905	-0.060
AB	0.832	0.800	-0.032
SK	0.912	0.869	-0.043
MB	0.890	0.872	-0.018
ON	0.844	0.813	-0.031
QC	0.864	0.850	-0.014
NB	0.859	0.827	-0.032
PE	0.856	0.809	-0.047
NS	0.872	0.826	-0.046
NL	0.988	0.955	-0.033
YT	1.054	0.979	-0.075
NT	1.104	1.062	-0.042

Prowling the Pumps – November 18, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

And the average price of gasoline in Canada keeps dropping – 3.5¢ per litre to $0.845 per litre. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was $2.80 less expensive to fill this week than last.

Gasoline prices slid in everywhere in the country except Northwest Territories where they remained steady, not bad considering they had the largest drop last week. This week the largest drop honours go to the Yukon at 8.5ȼ

Overall, the average gasoline price in Canada has dropped 53.8ȼ per litre since its all-time high of $1.383 per litre during the week of July 15. And this means that our hypothetical 80-litre tank now costs $43.04 less than it did almost four months ago – $110.64 then compared to $67.60 now.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Of the 60 cities surveyed this week, 56 enjoyed gasoline prices less that one dollar. That’s three more than last week. However, the big shift came in the number of cities paying less than 90ȼ per litre. Last week there were 19 cities; this week there are 43. Needless to say, the five cheapest were in Ontario.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Gander, at $0.984, is the first city in the pricey five to break the $1.00 per litre mark. Yellowknife and Whitehorse continue to jockey for most expensive city in which to buy gasoline, but, by virtue of Whitehorse dropping 8.5¢ per litre last week, Yellowknife takes top (bottom?) honours. Fort St. John is the only city in British Columbia where gas costs more than $1.00 per litre.

Last week’s question related to how much more the price of gasoline will fall. It’s still falling, but it seems to be leveling off – 3.5ȼ or so compared to 5.5ȼ to six cents a few weeks ago. Of course a lot depends on the price of oil, which is still falling.

On November 11, West Texas Intermediate crept below $60 US per barrel for the first time since March 2007. Since then, despite pirates hijacking a tanker holding two million barrels of oil, it has slipped further to less than $55 US per barrel.

With global economies continuing to decline, the demand for oil continues to decline as well. While pundits are loathe to predict how long the recession will last, some say it will be deep but brief.

Our flirtation with affordable gasoline may be brief. How brief? We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	0.989	0.965	-0.024
AB	0.864	0.832	-0.032
SK	0.941	0.912	-0.029
MB	0.948	0.890	-0.058
ON	0.875	0.844	-0.031
QC	0.910	0.864	-0.046
NB	0.916	0.859	-0.057
PE	0.929	0.856	-0.073
NS	0.922	0.872	-0.050
NL	1.046	0.988	-0.058
YT	1.139	1.054	-0.085
NT	1.104	1.104	0.000

Prowling the Pumps – October 21, 2008

Canadian Gasoline Prices

Average across Canada

Still dropping – 2.5¢ per litre this week to $1.044 per litre. Our hypothetical 80-litre tank was $2.00 less expensive to fill this week than last.

Gasoline prices slid everywhere except in the Yukon, where they stayed the same as last week. The steepest drop, 8.5¢ per litre occurred in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Overall, the average gasoline price in Canada has dropped 33.9¢ per litre since its all-time high of $1.383 per litre during the week of July 15. And this means that our hypothetical 80-litre tank now costs $27.12 per litre less than it did only three months ago. The reasons remain the same – declining demand for gasoline and cheap oil.

Least Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

Last week was first since we began prowling the pumps that there is one city in the low-cost five where the average price of gasoline was less than a buck. And the prowler predicted there was “hope for the rest of us yet”. I don’t like to boast, but this week, all five cities averaged less than a buck, including two from Alberta. And all indications are that this trend will grow. Interesting to note both Kingston and Ottawa saw slight increases in price, as did many cities in Ontario.

Most Expensive Gasoline in Canada (per litre)

The least expensive city in the pricey five finally dropped below $1.20 per litre, and the next three were all well below $1.30 per litre. And believe it or not, prices are dropping faster than they rose.

Last week we noted that the price of WTI had dipped below $80.00 US per barrel for the first time since last year. Well, since last week, WTI dipped below $70.00 US per barrel, and that hasn’t happed since June 2007. Not even the potential for OPEC to reduce production had much of an effect. So the big questions now are How low will it go? and How fast will it turn around?

We’ll see what happens next week.

Pricing by Province

	Last Week	This Week	Change
BC	1.169	1.162	-0.007
AB	1.073	1.007	-0.066
SK	1.153	1.102	-0.051
MB	1.137	1.111	-0.026
ON	1.062	1.045	-0.017
QC	1.120	1.088	-0.032
NB	1.110	1.067	-0.043
PE	1.166	1.049	-0.117
NS	1.111	1.088	-0.023
NL	1.277	1.192	-0.085
YT	1.249	1.249	0.000
NT	1.369	1.329	-0.040

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